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MICROSIMULATION MODELLING FOR POLICY MAKERS: STRENGTHS, WEAKNESSES AND PRED...
Tue. 18 October 2016, 9:00 am – 4:00 pm AEDT
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Microsimulation modelling in this one day course relates to the simulation of the Australian tax and benefit system on actual persons and households using survey data. The simulations are used for the purpose of understanding current and alternative policies in Australia. Microsimulation modelling is used heavily by researchers and policy analysts in Government but is increasingly in academia and the private sector. Microsimulation modelling offers the policy analysts capability to understand complex systems such as the tax and transfer system in Australia by simulating the rules of these systems on actual persons and households. By working at the individual level this technique offers insights to policy that is otherwise not feasible.
Recent examples of microsimulation modelling use in Australia include the modelling of the 2014-15 and 2015-16 Federal Budgets. Each of these budgets proposed a complex array of new or altered policies that impact on the disposable incomes and work incentives of Australians. This analysis enabled a full understanding of the winners and losers from the budget in what is called a ‘distributional analysis’. Microsimulation modelling can also incorporate behavioural impacts through altered economic behaviour or dynamic impacts through time.
The course will cover the following topics:
- Introduction to Microsimulation modelling and relevant Australian data
- Building a simple microsimulation model of personal income taxation in Australia covering the basics of building a basefile and program modules.
- Using the model to analyse alternative taxation policies
- Modelling the 2014-15 budget – A case study
- Introduction to newer dynamic and behavioural microsimulation modelling
WHO SHOULD ATTEND
If you work in government or the private sector and have always wondered how this type of simulation modelling can reliably predict the social and economic impact of taxes and budgets, then this is a course you should attend. Expert facilitators will guide participants in terms of contract bespoke modelling opportunities for policy interventions contemplated by Departments, advocacy bodies and think-tanks. This course may interest:
- Public servants and policy advisors working in public policy or quantitative areas
- Policy researchers and managers wishing gain a greater understanding of policy modelling in Australia
- Researchers and consultants keen to gain economic and statistical modelling skills relevant for public policy
- Media staff interested in gaining an appreciation for how policy modelling is undertaken
Assoc Professor Benjamin Phillips
Ben Phillips is Principal Research Fellow at the ANU Centre for Social Research and Methods (CSRM). Ben has a wide range of experience in both the public and private sector over the past 20 years in the field of economics and statistics. An excellent communicator and media spokesperson, Ben's main interest is the application of social and economic models to important social and economic policy matters such as income inequality, social exclusion, housing affordability and demographic change, taxation and social security and policy development.
Prior to joining CSRM, Ben was Principal Research Fellow at NATSEM (University of Canberra) where he led STINMOD, a static microsimulation model of Australia's income tax and transfer system. At NATSEM, Ben also undertook a broad range of analysis in areas as diverse as modelling the introduction of a GST and carbon pricing in addition to Federal Budget analysis. Ben was also a senior economist with the Housing Industry Association (HIA) where he was responsible for housing and economic forecasting within the Economics Group. Ben has also worked as a methodologist with the Australia Bureau of Statistics and as an economic forecaster with the Bureau of Tourism Research. Ben also published several reports with AMP in the areas of the cost of living, housing affordability, childcare and household debt. Ben also played an integral role in developing housing policy and analysis for housing affordability.
Can’t attend on this date?
Please contact ExecEd@anuenterprise.com.au to find out about future dates and schedules, as well as to enquire about training delivery at your own premises.
Are there any Group discounts?
Group discounts are available for bulk registrations of 3 or more participants.
What is the cancellation policy?
Cancellations or changes to course registrations should be provided in writing to ExecEd@anuenterprise.com.au at the earliest opportunity. Late substitution of registrants and shifting to other advertised courses is permissible but subject to approval and may incur a cost.
What is the refund policy?
Attendees are required to provide no less than 10 working days’ notice to request a full refund. No further refund will be offered once this period has expired. Participants are able to nominate another attendee from their organisation at no charge.
Is my registration/ticket transferable?
Yes, your registration is transferable to another employee at your organisation at any time prior to the day of the event. Please advise new registration details to ExecEd@anuenterprise.com.au