Anatomy of a Centre-Left Majority

ANATOMY OF A CENTRE-LEFT MAJORITY: Electoral trends in the 2022 federal election

Labor won the 2022 federal election with 52% of the two-party vote but deeper and more long-lasting realignment may be the real outcome of 2022. Labor's majority is buttressed by an unlikely Greens ascendancy in Brisbane and the demolition of inner-city Liberals by more moderate and progressive TEALS who represent the socially-liberal outlooks of the inner metro. This seminar profiles insights from polling analysts that go deep into the data, telling us about the shifting sociological foundations of the Australian electorate as well as what this election means for the long-term for government and policy.

Shaun Ratcliff (USYD/ YouGov) - socio-economic cleavages in voting: persistence of class and ownership

Kos Samaras (Redbridge) - Australia's changing electoral demography: inner cities, outer metro, and the regions

Kate Gleeson, Shaun Wilson, and Rob Ross (MQ) - The failure of a wedge issue? Exploring the religious and non-religious vote in 2022

Michelle Arrow (MQ) (with Shaun Ratcliff and Shaun Wilson) - women and voting in 2022: analysis from the CSES data

Ben Spies-Butcher (MQ/Greens)- the breakthrough of the Greens in 2022