Present & Discuss topic: " Tipping Points"

P&D-10 Tipping Points 19 & 23 December 2025

[FIND US: For Google Meet ONLINE, click "going" (not just "interested") to get a and I will send you a link. For the LIVE MEETUP, Look for a furry animal toy on the table. The Myer Basement Food Court is fairly quiet at 6:30 pm every second Friday evening when we meet there. This makes talking easy and relaxed. Each time there is a different topic with 10 talking points to help with ideas. For more details on each topic see the Facebook group at https://www.facebook.com/groups/1678127882281980 .

The organizer is Thor May, thormay@yahoo.com . See you soon :) ]

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Explanation: Some systems have linear predictability (e.g. like the normal distribution of an IQ bell curve). Some systems suddenly change exponentially and become unpredictable (like many small eathquakes finally triggerering a major earthquake). The moment when accumulated stresses trigger a major change is called a Tipping Point. Tipping points occur throughout nature, and in human affairs. Exact tipping points are almost impossible to predict. They are very, very risky to bet on, but often need to be prepared for (e.g. insurance risk, climate change).

Recommended viewing Veritasium (8 November 2025) "You've (Likely) Been Playing The Game of Life Wrong" @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBluLfX2F_k [45 minutes. Yes, long ... but it is so good that you might want to watch it more than once]

Discussion Points

1. Tipping points can be positive or negative (the negative ones make the news). What is a tipping point that you can recall from the past? Could the event it triggered have been prevented?

2. Chronic illness and death from old age rarely have a single cause. They arise from an accumulation of problems, until one day some small issue triggers catastrophe. What are some examples? How can you prevent or prepare for this yourself?

3. Economies, financial systems, and especially the stock market are prone to tipping points. What are some examples of where these systems suddenly spun out of control?

4. Most products never make their manufacturers a fortune. At best they earn a steady income (e.g. soap). In publishing, most products (books) lose money, but a tiny percentage unpredictably go viral and earn a fortune. Going viral is a tipping point. As an entrepreneur, what kind of product would you aim for?

5. In the recent past, so called AI, especially LLMs like Chat GPT, have created a tipping point for civilizations. It could change us rapidly, or destroy us. How should we handle the turbulence of AI which is engulfing us?

6. Wars seem to be part of the human condition. Most conflicts are small, and peter out like grass fires. However an accumulation of small fires creates conditions where one incident can trigger a major war (World War I was triggered by a single assassination). How can we defuse the tipping points for major conflicts.

7. Climate change has many sceptics (most notably at the moment the Trump administration in US). The critics don't grasp that there are many possible trigger points for huge, violent change which will make whole countries or continents unliveable. How is the world preparing for this?

8. Individuals sometimes have a single experience which changes their whole outlook on life, and behaviour going forward. It might be a book, or an accident, or a relationship breakdown, or a religious conversion etc. Looking back they will realize that they were menally prepared for these tipping points by all kinds of previous experience. What examples can you think of?

9. Venture capitalists bet on one product, one company out of hundreds of other failures suddenly going viral and making them billions of dollars. If you were a venture capitalist now, where would be placing your bets?

10. Humans traditionally lived in small scattered settlements. Now a country like China with over 700 cities has people crammed densely into forests of 30 story appartment blocks, with all necessities for survival coming through complex supply chains. What kind of tipping point in these dense environments could trigger major catastrophe, even extinction?

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Extra viewing & reading

Veritasium (8 November 2025) "You've (Likely) Been Playing The Game of Life Wrong" @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HBluLfX2F_k [45 minutes. Yes, long ... but it is so good that you might want to watch it more than once]

PBS Terra (24 Oct 2025) "We Just Crossed Our FIRST Tipping Point… And It’s NOT What You Think" @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ECYMHIbBYyI

Simon Sinek ( 4 Feb 2020) "How to start a cultural change?"

@ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zClAdLw4yRI

Fix It Films (31 May 2023) "FIX IT: HEALTHCARE AT THE TIPPING POINT - Takes a hard look at how our dysfunctional American healthcare system negatively impacts the nation’s health, discourages physicians and hurts the bottom line of our businesses and national economy" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u43Dp4qYQsM

Thomas Bury (2018) "The Mathematics of Tipping Points" TEDx UofTSalon https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pfm7OqBVA6I [ Thor, comment: a very clear talk. It turns out from the mathematics of tipping points that a universal predictor of approaching tipping points is that the system slows down and takes longer to recover. That fits the journey of the human body perfectly.)

Leo BNTZ (2023) "When is more too much (Relationship Tipping Point)" @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-8EiAi4O4Y

Professor Tim Lenton (10 December 2025) "Tipping Points" | National Emergency Briefing @ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tmd6MDiJmQU