Modelling to inform policy interventions

Join us for this webinar hosted by UNSW Medicine & Health.

Responding to the need to share knowledge across borders and learn from each other’s experience in health systems management and disease prevention and control, UNSW and the National Centre for Disease Control (NCDC), India, have signed an MOU to strengthen scientific exchange and cooperation. Together we are presenting a series of webinars to share information and build networks between Australia and India.

About the webinar

In this second webinar in the series, researchers from the UNSW School of Population Health will present on the topic of Modelling to inform policy interventions. The presentations will be followed by a Q&A Session.

Using agent-based models in health emergencies

Associate Professor David Heslop will present a talk about how agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) as a powerful tool for understanding, planning, and optimizing emergency management strategies. By simulating the actions and interactions of autonomous agents—such as first responders, civilians, infrastructure systems, and environmental factors—ABMS enables the exploration of complex, dynamic scenarios that emerge during disasters. The presentation will cover foundational principles of ABMS, highlight real-world case studies (e.g., evacuation modelling, disease spread, and resource allocation), and demonstrate how emergent behaviour from individual-level decisions can inform policy and operational planning. Emphasis will be placed on integrating geospatial data, behavioural rules, and scenario testing to improve resilience, coordination, and adaptive capacity in multi-hazard emergency contexts.

Scenario modelling for vaccines

Mathematical modelling has been a key component of both real-time decision-making and longer-term planning for COVID-19. Modelling has been widely used to inform decisions on vaccine strategies, both within countries and at the global level. Mathematical models were developed throughout the pandemic, for different representative global country settings (characterised by demography, contact patterns, and health system capacity), and were used to identify optimal vaccine allocation strategies within and between countries, aiming maximise the health benefit when the supply of doses was initially limited. Dr Hogan will present broad findings from these studies, highlight how this collaborative research helped to inform global public health policy during the pandemic, and reflect on how international partnerships ensured successful policy translation.

Integration of modelling with infectious disease surveillance

Professor James Wood will discuss integration of models with infectious disease surveillance data in the context of near real-time epidemic intelligence. He will largely focus on COVID-19 and discuss forecasting, integration of viral genomic surveillance data and the potential for wider application across infectious diseases with the growing utility of waste-water surveillance data.

About the presenters

Professor James Wood

Professor James Wood, Head of School, UNSW School of Population Health trained as an applied mathematician and has research interests across a broad range from evolutionary and immunological processes to cost-effectiveness evaluations for disease interventions. He completed his honours degree and PhD at the University of Queensland (both in mathematical physics) and worked extensively with state and federal governments on models to underpin COVID-19 responses in Australia. His primary application area is respiratory viruses and vaccine preventable diseases but he also has interests in tuberculosis and sexually transmitted infections. Read more.

Dr Alexandra Hogan

As a mathematical epidemiologist and Scientia Senior Lecturer, UNSW School of Population Health, Dr Alexandra Hogan works on mathematical models of infectious diseases, focused on estimating the public health impact of new respiratory virus vaccines. Dr Hogan is currently working on dynamic models to help inform longer term planning of ongoing COVID-19, RSV, and influenza vaccination programs in Australia. Dr Hogan is co-leading Australia’s first scenario modelling hub, and is a member of the World Health Organization’s committee on vaccine implementation research. Read more.

Associate Professor David Heslop

Dr David Heslop is an Associate Professor at the School of Population Health at UNSW Sydney, and a practicing vocationally registered General Practitioner (FRACGP), an Occupational and Environmental Physician (FAFOEM) with RACP. He retains military responsibilities as Senior Medical Adviser for CBRNE to the Australian Army and to Australian Defence Force (ADF) leadership. He has experience in planning for and management of major disasters, mass casualty and multiple casualty situations. His research interests lie in health and medical systems innovation and research using computational modelling and simulation to address otherwise intractable problems. Read more.